It’s Oscar time again, so let me throw my hat into the ring and try to handicap the winners.  The only thing for certain is that Monday morning we will have our gripes about the length of the broadcast, the rambling acceptance speeches and the corny production numbers.  Another certainty is how much we will miss Billy Crystal.  This year’s host is the incredibly unfunny Ellen Degeneres—the prediction here is that she will be a complete disaster.  Billy, please come back—your opening musical number alone is enough to keep us attentive for the marathon broadcast.

But enough of the broadcast and on with the films.  In retrospect, 2006 was a mixed bag.  Surely, there were many fine movies and more than a few stellar performances.  The one thing it lacked, however, was that one monster film, that one great performance that had everyone buzzing.  Granted, in past years the films that got the most buzz did not necessarily win (see Brokeback Mountain)—but at least there was buzz.  For this year’s race it has been surprisingly low-key.  I’m not sure anyone knows what is going to happen.  Then again, what better reason is there to tune in?

So here are my predictions (for what they are worth) in the top six major categories.

BEST PICTURE

Babel—The most politically charged film of the group.  Multiple plotlines, international locations and a volatile message bode well for its chances. 

The Departed—By far, the most entertaining film of the bunch.  A crackerjack cast of Nicholson, DiCaprio, Damon and Wahlberg have a blast with the plot-twists and turns.  A killer ending garnered a gasp from the audience I saw it with.

Letters From Iwo Jima—Clint Eastwood brought a one-two punch this year along with the companion piece Flags of Our Fathers.  Told from the Japanese perspective, this WWII may be little too under the radar to grab the big one.

Little Miss Sunshine—Made on a shoestring budget, this indie about a dysfunctional family is the feel-good story of the year.  With a SAG award already in its pocket for best cast, this one is the sentimental favorite.

The Queen—A good movie only made better by the presence of Helen Mirren.  Her larger-than-life role keeps the film grounded when it very easily could have drifted into the dreaded movie-of -the-week category. 

“And the Oscar goes to…”
There is talk that the dramatic vote will split between Babel and The Departed leaving the door open for Little Miss Sunshine.  Don’t count on it.  The academy never misses a chance to make a political statement just as it did last year with Crash.  Look for a repeat this year with Babel taking home the prize.

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond—This was not even Leo’s best performance of the year; he was better in The Departed.  Still, a solid effort even if his accent seemed a little contrived at times.

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