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It’s Oscar time again, so let me throw my hat into the ring and try to handicap the winners.  The only thing for certain is that Monday morning we will have our gripes about the length of the broadcast, the rambling acceptance speeches and the corny production numbers.  Another certainty is how much we will miss Billy Crystal.  This year’s host is the incredibly unfunny Ellen Degeneres—the prediction here is that she will be a complete disaster.  Billy, please come back—your opening musical number alone is enough to keep us attentive for the marathon broadcast.

But enough of the broadcast and on with the films.  In retrospect, 2006 was a mixed bag.  Surely, there were many fine movies and more than a few stellar performances.  The one thing it lacked, however, was that one monster film, that one great performance that had everyone buzzing.  Granted, in past years the films that got the most buzz did not necessarily win (see Brokeback Mountain)—but at least there was buzz.  For this year’s race it has been surprisingly low-key.  I’m not sure anyone knows what is going to happen.  Then again, what better reason is there to tune in?

So here are my predictions (for what they are worth) in the top six major categories.

BEST PICTURE

Babel—The most politically charged film of the group.  Multiple plotlines, international locations and a volatile message bode well for its chances. 

The Departed—By far, the most entertaining film of the bunch.  A crackerjack cast of Nicholson, DiCaprio, Damon and Wahlberg have a blast with the plot-twists and turns.  A killer ending garnered a gasp from the audience I saw it with.

Letters From Iwo Jima—Clint Eastwood brought a one-two punch this year along with the companion piece Flags of Our Fathers.  Told from the Japanese perspective, this WWII may be little too under the radar to grab the big one.

Little Miss Sunshine—Made on a shoestring budget, this indie about a dysfunctional family is the feel-good story of the year.  With a SAG award already in its pocket for best cast, this one is the sentimental favorite.

The Queen—A good movie only made better by the presence of Helen Mirren.  Her larger-than-life role keeps the film grounded when it very easily could have drifted into the dreaded movie-of -the-week category. 

“And the Oscar goes to…”
There is talk that the dramatic vote will split between Babel and The Departed leaving the door open for Little Miss Sunshine.  Don’t count on it.  The academy never misses a chance to make a political statement just as it did last year with Crash.  Look for a repeat this year with Babel taking home the prize.

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond—This was not even Leo’s best performance of the year; he was better in The Departed.  Still, a solid effort even if his accent seemed a little contrived at times.

Forrest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland—A powerhouse performance by one of the most underrated actors of our time.  His transformation into the terrifying tyrant Idi Amin was the performance of the year.

Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson—Gosling’s intense, underaffected stab as a crack-addicted high school teacher was a brilliant study in brokenness and vulnerability.

Peter O’Toole, Venus—The sentimental choice of the year.  This 74-year old may not have another chance at this award again, and his performance shows that he knows it.  An heroic effort by one of the greats.

Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness—A powerful change of pace for Smith as a homeless dad attempting to raise his son and pursue a career as a stockbroker.  Done without all the usual bells and whistles that Smith usually brings, he turns in a moving, emotional performance.

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Forrest Whitaker.  Mr. Whitaker, with a Golden Globe and SAG award already on your mantle, make room for that Oscar.  Your performance was the best of the year.

BEST ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Volver—The fact that I overheard a ticket buyer pronounce this film as “Vol-ver” (like you would pronounce “Volvo”) aside, the reality remains that foreign language actors have a hard time winning this category.  However, Penelope’s commanding presence shows that she can hold her own against the heavyweights in her category regardless of the language.

Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal—A past winner for supporting actress, Dench puts her signature intensity into the role of an obsessed teacher.  Her masterful crafting of a dark, disturbing role shows why she is one of the best of our time.

Helen Mirren, The Queen—Simultaneoulsy steadfast and sensitive, Mirren handles the title role as if she was born to play it.  A risky venture to portray someone still living, Mirren is a marvel.  Can we just hand her the award now?

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada—Streep has a blast as the frightening boss from hell Miranda Priestly.  Skillfully, she manages to get her kicks without becoming a caricature.  She hasn’t been nominated fourteen times for nothing you know?  “That’s all.”

Kate Winslet, Little Children—Her restless spirit as an adulterous suburbanite would be enough to get her on the radar most years.  Unfortunately, she is lost in the shadow of Mirren. 

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Hands down, no doubt, bet the mortgage on Helen Mirren.  For this year at least, she is a woman among girls.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine—As the crass, acerbic grandfather he hams it up and manages to steal the film (while he is in it).  In contrast to his rough edges, the tenderness he shows toward his granddaughter Olive brings tears to the eyes.

Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children—The comeback of the year as the former Bad News Bears slugger Kelly Leak re-emerges in a haunting role as a sex offender.  A risky role but we are rewarded with a home-run performance.

Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond—The passionate portrayal of a man fighting for his kidnapped son in violence-ridden Africa.  Hounsou manages to capture rage in all its wide-eyed varieties.  Even in silence, you can sense the despair.

Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls—The dream role for Murphy.  He shows a range of emotion and talent that, thus far in his career, he has left untapped.  Hopefully, this will break the creative ice and give him courage to continue to explore roles that allow him to broaden his horizon. 

Mark Wahlberg, The Departed—First time nomination for the 35-year old Bostonian who manages to overshadow the likes of Alec Baldwin, Martin Sheen, Matt Damon, and Dicaprio.   Wahlberg brings a hard-nosed, street-smart intensity to the role of Sgt. Dignam.  In the end, it is his character that you remember most vividly as you leave the theatre.

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Eddie Murphy.  Bad reputation and surly personality aside, how can he not be rewarded for his dynamic performance as the tragic James “Thunder” Early?  Here’s hoping he manages to crack a smile during the acceptance speech.

BEST SURRPOTING ACTRESS

Adriana Baraza, Babel—Talk about sacrificing yourself for a role.  This veteran of Spanish-language novellas brought such heartbreak and brokenness to her character that there were concerns for her physical and emotional well-being on the set. 

Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal—A previous winner in 2004 for The Aviator, Blanchett holds her own in the powerful presence of Judi Dench.  The character transformation of Blanchett as Sheba Hart from the beginning of the film to the end is a credit to the prowess of Blanchett to immerse herself in a role.

Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine—In the role of the ever-optimistic Olive Hoover, Breslin charms and wins her way into your heart.  Heck, for a minute I thought she might even win the pageant.  Now that is the sign of a good performance.

Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls—Forget all that American Idol runner-up stuff.  Hudson is the real deal in the role of Effie White.  It is not overstatement to say that audiences were applauding during the film after one of her knock-out musical numbers.  The pain felt by Effie is made abundantly clear through the heartbreaking vocals.  Oh, and when she isn’t singing she’s still a pretty good actress.  Hudson will never have a role like this again and she seized the moment with such ferocity that you can’t help but cheer.

Rinko Kikuchi, Babel—The most intriguing of any of the nominated acting roles.  Kikuchis’ character Chieko is a breathtaking display of desperation and vulnerability.  The fact that she never utters a word through the movie makes it all the more impressive.

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Jennifer Hudson.  Gotta love it when a Hollywood outsider can penetrate the nose-in-the-air culture of tinseltown.  Hudson has managed to do that and a win here will only solidify her place among them. 

BEST DIRECTOR

Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima—What a showoff Eastwood is.  Not only did he direct Letters but also Flags of Our Fathers.  Either film would have been worthy of a nomination.  Already a two-time winner, Eastwood shows no signs of slowing down.

Stephen Frears, The Queen—His quiet effort in The Queen is difficult to dissect.  On one hand, it is a performance-driven film headed by the afore-mentioned Helen Mirren.  On the other hand, it more than capably chronicles not only a living public figure but a recent event in world history.  He manages to do it skillfully without resorting to TV-melodrama.  How much of this is a credit to him or Mirren is the question.  Still, a solid effort by a top-notch director. 

Paul Greengrass, United 93—Presented with the same challenge as Frears, without the star power, Greengrass handles one of history’s darkest days with grace, dignity and lack of pretense.  A dark-horse favorite in the category, a win here would not be surprising.

Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Babel—The most innovative of the films here, Iñárritu’s handling of multi-layered complexities is becoming his forte.  However, he may have done it better in 21 Grams. 

Martin Scorsese, The Departed—Nominated five times previously, Scorsese threw all caution to the wind and said "Screw it, let’s have some fun." And what fun did they have in The Departed.  All those powerful performances, do you think they directed themselves?

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Finally, one for Martin Scorsese.  Maybe history will show that The Departed was not his best film.  He may have—even should have—won before for something else, but his time is now.  The standing ovation he is sure to get is for his vast body of work.  The man deserves it.


Well, that’s it.  Nothing left to do but settle onto the couch with countless millions of others and watch it all unfold. 

Which begs the larger question: What is drawing us to tune in?  What attracts us to the world of filmmaking and the creative forces behind the films we see?  For some it may be to see the designer dresses, the hairdos, the jewelry and who came with whom.  But I propose that it is something more personal, more intimate that underscores our interest in the medium of film.  I believe that it speaks to the power of story and its ability to stir up within the viewer a desire for purpose and meaning.  For those of us who view film through the lens of faith and the Gospel, we can interpret and glean truth from even the darkest of narratives.  But for many, films shape their worldview and become their lens—it offers answers to universal questions for which they have not found adequate answers elsewhere. 

Carl Sandburg once stated, “All movies, good or bad, are educational and Hollywood is the foremost educational institution on earth.”  It is this universal quest for beauty, truth, and the transcendent that keeps us going to the cinema—or what filmmaker Eric Rohmer calls “the cathedral of the twentieth (now twenty-first!) century.”