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The writer’s strike is over and the show can go on—thankfully. Amidst all the hand-wringing about how 2007 was the year of the “dark” film and network executives fretting over anticipated low ratings, for the film-lover Oscar night is like Super Bowl Sunday.

It’s a celebration of great films, performances, creativity and I, for one, can’t wait.

So, once again, I am throwing my hat in the ring and predicting who I think will go home clutching the coveted Oscar in the six major categories.

BEST PICTURE

Atonement—The most puzzling film of the five nominated. No doubt director Joe Wright has created a visually stunning piece of work and garnered great performances from his actors but, as a story, this one left a lot to be desired. I could name at least six other films that deserved this nomination more.

Juno—This small-budget indie film has become the Cinderella story of the year. Personally, it is my favorite film of the year and the one that I am most likely to watch repeatedly. I would love to see this film win but I think it just might be too cool for its own good and skew to a younger audience—this does not bode well for its chances.

Michael Clayton—A solid effort by director Tony Gilroy who gives his own fresh twist on the legal-thriller genre. Contains one of the most chilling murder sequences I have ever seen on film—far scarier than anything in No Country For Old Men.

No Country For Old Men—The Coen Brothers’ dark adaptation of the Cormac McCarthy novel has it all—a killer (no pun intended) storyline, quirky humor, amazing performances, and an ending that stirs debate and discussion.

There Will Be Blood—Love it or hate it—one thing you can’t do is forget it. A sweeping epic, beautifully crafted from beginning to end.

“And the Oscar goes to…”
No Country For Old Men. As much as I would love to see Juno sneak off with an upset here, I just don’t see it happening. No Country For Old Men will stand the test of time as a classic.

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney, Michael Clayton—Even after strong performances in past films (The Perfect Storm, Syriana)I have always had trouble with Clooney being just another pretty Hollywood face. No longer. His intense performance walked a fine line between desperation, vulnerability, and powder-keg volatility.

Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood—Hands down one of the best actors of our time. He always chooses interesting roles and his performance as slick-talking oilman Daniel Plainview was one for the ages.

Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd—While I was disappointed that the film was overlooked, there is no doubt that Depp was made to play Sweeney Todd. Forget the fact that he sings, although he was amazing at that too—he captured the broken soul of Benjamin Barker, hell-bent to get his revenge with razor-sharp precision.

Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley of Elah—As the father of a fallen U.S. soldier, Jones perfectly captured the desperation of a man looking for answers and the heartbreaking sadness in his eyes will bring a tear to yours.

Viggo Mortenson, Eastern Promises—A brave performance that goes beyond just the Russian accent. Underneath the rough exterior there is a heart and Mortenson gives us glimpses of it in his steady performance.

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Daniel Day-Lewis. The film would not have been half as good without his intense performance. The fact that he portrays such a vile, despicable man and, yet, you can’t take your eyes off him says it all. Plus, his “I drink your milkshake” line is one of the most memorable of recent movie history.

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age—I am fully convinced that Blanchett could read the phone book aloud and the academy would grant her a nomination. No doubt Blanchett is good but her bombastic performance in this mediocre film makes this nomination a reach.

Julie Christie, Away From Her—A steady, graceful performance by the veteran Christie as an aging woman whose humanity is slowly deteriorating due to the unmerciful onslaught of Alzheimer’s.

Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose—The tragic story of the French singer Edith Piaf captured powerfully by Cotillard. Her presence keeps this film from sinking into standard biopic fare.

Laura Linney, The Savages—The always reliable Linney is amazing in this underrated film. Partnered with Phillip Seymour Hoffman, she more than holds her own.

Ellen Page, Juno—My instinct tells me that the film as a whole is better than the individual performances. A good job by Page but, in comparison to the some of the others in this category, she does not have much of a shot.

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Marion Cotillard. While Christie culled much of the early buzz, Cotillard has gained momentum as the favorite. The sheer magnitude and scale of her performance outshines the subtleties of the more understated Christie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford—A great year for Affleck as he stepped out of brother Ben’s shadow with two great performances (the other being Gone Baby Gone). Affleck here steals the show from Brad Pitt as the creepy Ford.

Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men—With his bad haircut, funny gait, and a curious choice of weapon, Anton Chighur is one of the scariest villains ever to grace the screen. The coin-flip scene is a classic.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War—Hoffman has a blast as renegade CIA agent Gust Avrakotos. Teamed with Tom Hanks, the two have infectious chemistry and much of it comes from Hoffman’s unique ability to completely transform himself into character.

Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild—No sentimentality here. The veteran actor deserves this nomination for his heartbreaking portrayal of an elderly man coming to grips with his past by connecting with the wayward traveler Christopher McCandless.

Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton—A role that could have easily slipped into a caricature is steadied by the veteran touch of a pro like Wilkinson. One of the more bizarre characters of recent years and Wilkinson nails it with the perfect combination of madness and humanity.

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Javier Bardem. In any other year it would be a toss-up between Holbrook and Wilkinson. This is the year for Bardem and No Country For Old Men.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There—Two things the academy loves: quirky, ambitious films and Cate Blanchett. Todd Haynes’ Dylan-inspired odyssey is both and Blanchett is the best of the bunch of the ensemble actors in the film.

Rudy Dee, American Gangster—Sentimentality aside, this is one that I just don’t get. It wasn’t a bad performance—it just wasn’t memorable. The fact that she won the SAG Award doesn’t make it any better. If she does manage a win here, four more deserving actresses would be robbed.

Saoirse Ronan, Atonement—A brilliant performance by a promising young actress. She just did not have enough screen time to justify a nomination here, much less a win. Look for big things in the future from her.

Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone—One of the most chillingly vile characters of the past year and Ryan nails every seedy part of her. As the alcoholic, drug-addicted mother of a missing child, she is unrelenting in her raw power.
The ethical questions that linger after the conclusion of the film are a direct result of the honest performance of Ryan.

Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton—The third acting nomination from this film and Swinton more than holds her own against Clooney and Wilkinson.

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Amy Ryan. A performance that sears itself into your memory. None of her competitors here have the same effect. If anyone else walks off with the win, there is truly no justice.

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood—Ambitious and creative, the visionary Anderson just keeps getting better. It’s hard to imagine that he is going to do even greater things in the future.

Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men—The stark vision, eccentricity and quiet landscapes are all product of the genius minds of the Coen boys.

Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayon—Not a bad effort for the first-time director. A masterfully crafted legal thriller, beautifully acted and deserving of great praise.

Jason Reitman, Juno—With a great script and a fantastic group of actors, it’s easy to look good. Time will tell if the promise Reitman demonstrates here is legit.

Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell And The Butterfly—Memorable film that owes much of its beauty to the masterful work of its director. One thing for certain if he wins: Sean Young will not be on his list of ‘thank yous.’

“And the Oscar goes to…”
Joel and Ethan Coen. For sheer ambition and the sheer magnitude of the film. No Country For Old Men could not have been made by any other director than these two guys.

That’s it. I’ll be keeping track of my picks at home along with all of you. Oh, by the way, one more pick just for the heck of it: Original Song has to, I repeat has to, go to “Falling Slowly” from Once. It may sound cliché but it would be a travesty of justice if any other song walks off with the trophy.

Now, let the show begin!