The first nine passages (colored blue) are negative, making clear that hope is shunned as a general rule; that hope is foolish. The next four (colored red) are ironically negative, retracting hope as soon as it is expressed. The next three (colored green) are ambiguously positive, somewhat optimistic yet qualified with reservations. The final two (colored pink) are positive, standing out as exceptionally Christian (unlike the other sixteen) and contrary to the general view of hope in Middle-earth.

Aragorn: "Farewell Gandalf!...What hope have we without you?" He turned to the Company. "We must do without hope," he said. "At least we may yet be avenged." (Lothlérien)

Treebeard: "Of course, my friends, it is likely enough that we are going to our doom: the last march of the ents. But if we stayed at home and did nothing, doom would find us anyway, sooner or later." (Treebeard)

Frodo: "To do the job as you put it—what hope is there that we ever shall? And if we do, who knows what will come of that? If the One goes into the Fire, and we are at hand? I ask you, Sam, are we ever likely to need bread again? I think not. If we can nurse our limbs to bring us to Mount Doom, that is all we can do." (The Passage of the Marshes)

Sam: After all, he never had any real hope in the affair from the beginning; but being a cheerful hobbit he had not needed hope, as long as despair could be postponed. Now they were come to the bitter end. But he had stuck to his master all the way, and he would still stick to him. (The Black Gate is Closed)

Faramir: "It is a hard doom and a hopeless errand, Frodo son of Drogo. I do not hope to see you again on any other day under this Sun. But you shall go now with my blessing upon you, and upon all your pÉople." (The Forbidden Pool)

Éowyn: It seemed that Dernhelm laughed, and the clear voice was like the ring of steel. "No living man am I! You look upon a woman..." Éowyn it was, and into Merry's mind flashed the memory of the face that he saw at the riding from Dunharrow: the face of one that goes seeking death, having no hope.(The Battle of the Pelennor Fields)

Éomer: "Death take us all! Ride, ride to ruin and the world's ending... Out of doubt, out of dark to the day's rising, I came singing in the sun, sword unsheathing. To hope's end I rode and to heart's breaking: now for wrath, now for ruin, and a red nightfall!"(The Battle of the Pelennor Fields)

Pippin: The troll toppled forward and came crashing down like a falling rock, burying those beneath him. Blackness and stench and crushing pain came upon Pippin, and his mind fell away into a great darkness. "So it ends as I guessed it would," his thought said, and it laughed a little within him ere it fled... (The Black Gate Opens)

Frodo: Sam, laying Frodo's wounded hand gently to his breast... "After coming all that way, I don't want to give up yet," he said. "Maybe not, Sam," said Frodo. "But it's like things are in the world. Hopes fail. An end comes. We are lost in ruin and downfall, and there is no escape." (The Field of Cormallen)

Elrond: "Now at this last we must take a hard road, a road unforeseen. There lies our hope, if hope it be. To walk into peril—to Mordor." (The Council of Elrond)

Faramir: "What hope have we?" said Faramir. "It is long since we had any hope. The sword of Elendil, if it returns indeed, may rekindle it, but I do not think that it will do more than put off the evil day, unless other help unlooked- for also comes, from elves or men. For the Enemy increases and we decrease. We are a failing pÉople, a springless autumn." (The Window on the West)

Arwen: [Message to Aragorn, delivered by Halbarad] "Either our hope cometh, or all hopes end." (The Passing of the Grey Company)

Gandalf: Pippin took Gandalf's hand. "Tell me, is there any hope for Frodo?" Gandalf put his hand on Pippin's head. "There never was much hope," he answered. "Just a fool's hope..."(The Siege of Gondor)

Galadriel: "Even now there is hope left... But this I will say to you: your Quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail, to the ruin of all. Yet hope remains while all the Company is true." (The Mirror of Galadriel)

Gandalf: "That we should try to destroy the Ring itself has not yet entered into his darkest dream. In which no doubt you will see our good fortune and our hope. For imagining war he has let loose war, believing that he has no time to waste... If he had used all his power to guard Mordor, so that none could enter, and bent all his guile to the hunting of the Ring, then indeed hope would have faded: neither Ring nor bearer could long have eluded him... I have spoken words of hope. But only of hope. Hope is not victory. War is upon us, a war in which only the use of the Ring could give us surety of victory. It fills me with great sorrow and great fear: for much shall be destroyed and all may be lost. I am Gandalf, Gandalf the White, but Black is mightier still." (The White Rider)

Gandalf: Together Gandalf and ThÉoden looked out from the high place towards the East. "That way lies our hope, where sits our greatest fear. Doom hangs still on a thread. Yet hope there is still, if we can but stand unconquered for a while." (The King of the Golden Hall)

Sam: "You fool, he isn't dead, and your heart knew it. Don't trust your head, Samwise, it is not the best part of you. The trouble with you is that you never really had any hope." (The Choices of Master Samwise)

Sam: Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach. (The Land of Shadow)

This survey highlights varying degrees of pessimism (save the last two), but it is clear in any case that hope is no virtue in Middle-earth. Let us consider each set of statements in detail.

The Blue Statements (Negative)

These texts indicate the foolish nature of hope as generally viewed by the pÉoples of Middle-earth. Aragorn picks up the banner after Gandalf's fall without any hope for the quest's success, rather for the chance of doing at least some good and avenging the wizard. Treebeard expects that his race will be wiped out in the war against Saruman, a doom which is inevitable anyway. Frodo answers his own rhetorical question in the Dead Marshes by implying that hope for his quest is indeed foolish. Sam himself never had any hope in the quest to begin with, but having cheer he needed no hope—a clear contrast between the Norse virtue of cheer and the (foolish) Christian virtue of hope. Faramir is certain that he will never see Frodo again, since the hobbit's quest is a hopeless errand; yet he sends him off with a blessing anyway. As Éowyn confronts the Witch-King, Merry realizes that she has come without hope to die on the Pelennor Fields. Her brother Éomer evokes apocalyptic doom when he cries for the world's end and the death of everyone before charging into battle. Pippin is able to laugh as he "dies" from the troll attack at the Black Gate, because death and defeat is what he had expected all along. Frodo's final statement at the Cracks of Doom is most important, because it is recited as a general proverb: "It's like things are in the world: hopes fail." One can understand the hobbit's defeatism since he just failed to destroy the Ring (having claimed it for himself; Gollum's freak intervention is what destroyed it); yet failure is what he had expected.

In light of these clear and unambiguous statements, I find the assessment of Michael Stanton puzzling. He describes Sam as "giving up hope" at the Black Gate (Hobbits, Elves, and Wizards: Exploring the Wonders and Worlds of J.R.R. Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings, p. 164), which is simply not true. From the passage cited above it is clear that Sam never had any hope in the quest to begin with. Stanton goes on to say that "despair covers Sam like a shroud" (ibid.), which is again untrue. Sam does not succumb to despair, for he still has cheer (his essential hobbit nature) and courage (intending to "stick to his master all the way"). The problem is that Stanton imposes a Christian world-view upon the text by assuming that "no hope" leads to despair. But in Middle-earth it is the Norse world-view which is operative: the failure of courage and cheer leads to despair. Sam has lost neither of these virtues.

Tom Shippey has the right of it, recognizing that the hobbits reject from the outset any idea of a compulsory happy ending: "Those who need hope to keep going will fall prey to despair when their hope is ultimately withdrawn. But those who [like Frodo, Sam, and Pippin] feel from the start that the whole thing is going to be a disaster remain immune, even cheerful [Sam and Pippin], when their expectations are confirmed." (J.R.R. Tolkien: Author of the Century, p. 153)

The Red Statements (Ironical-negative)

These texts point to the foolish nature of hope ironically, removing it as soon as it is expressed. Elrond acknowledges that an attempt to destroy the Ring is the only hopeful option available, but he has reservations about calling it hopeful. Faramir likewise undercuts his own hopes for Gondor's salvation by opining that the return of Isildur's heir will only postpone Sauron's inevitable victory. Arwen invokes Aragorn's elvish name ('Hope') ironically, goading him to attempt the foolish task for which he was prepared in advance (take the Paths of the Dead), saying, in effect, that he has nothing to lose by attempting the impossible. Finally, in Minas Tirith, Gandalf advises Pippin against putting any hope in Frodo's quest, save perhaps a "fool's hope".

These statements undermine hope by disowning it even as it is embraced. It's almost as if the pÉople of Middle-earth know they will jinx themselves by exhibiting the smallest degree of this foolish emotion. "Can't live without it, can't live with it" is the motto, whereby hope is invoked only to be immediately relinquished (Elrond, Faramir, Arwen)—or relinquished and then invoked in vain (Gandalf).

The Green Statements (Ambiguous-positive)

These texts point to the ambiguous nature of hope, making allowances for it while still holding it at arm's length. Galadriel says that hope remains while all members of the fellowship are true to their purpose, but in fact "all" of them are not true (that is, Boromir). To say that the quest is poised upon the edge of a knife indicates the precarious nature of this hope to begin with. Gandalf speaks of hope for the Ringbearer's quest while undercutting it with doubts about victory, emphasizing in the end that "black is mightier than white" (as in the Norse and Anglo-Saxon traditions, evil is more powerful than good and should be ultimately victorious). His statement that doom hangs on a thread is as ominous as Galadriel's, though he too acknowledges a measure of hope in the Ringbearer's quest while qualifying it at every turn: hope lies east, but so does fear; hope remains, but only if the free pÉoples stay unconquered. In these passages, hope is not necessarily foolish—as long as one doesn't "hope too much", and only under the right conditions—but it seems reserved for those who have enough wisdom to pronounce on the matter.

Indeed it is no accident that this more positive view of hope is expressed by the eldest (Galadriel) and wisest (Gandalf) beings in Middle-earth, for whom the future is constantly in flux. Galadriel is a visionary whose seer-like gifts would allow her more leniency on the subject; and Gandalf is an emissary of the Valar committed to aiding the free pÉoples and boosting their morale when situations warrant. For these reasons they are able to use hope as a caution against seeing the end beyond all doubt. Hope may not exactly be a virtue for them, but it does have its place as an occasional reminder that the end is not entirely certain.

The Pink Statements (Positive)

These texts are exceptional passages which reflect the Christian world-view of the author rather than the Nordic world-view of his characters. For a moment Sam thinks that his lack of hope is the trouble with him, implying a defect with his world-view. Later in the Morgai Vale he actually succumbs to a moment of hope—for the ultimate triumph of good over evil. In seeming contradiction to everything discussed above, hope is now portrayed as a virtue: evil is but "a passing thing"; and good can be counted on to prevail in the end.

One can only speculate why Tolkien allowed his true colors to show at these moments in the story after giving the theme of hope a thoroughly pagan treatment elsewhere. Maybe the sudden realization that one's "dead" friend isn't dead after all is enough to stand a world-view on its head. Perhaps being overcome by a single sign of beauty in the worst place on earth is what it takes to bring about desperate optimism against the conventions of ordinary wisdom; it's almost as if Sam has experienced an epiphany. Then too we should bear in mind that Tolkien wrote The Lord of the Rings as a pre-history to our own, and Sam's emotional moments may have been intended as pious anticipations of the distant future event (Christ's resurrection) through which death and evil would be defeated at long last. If the latter be true, then Sam's hope in the Morgai Vale is not for his master's quest in particular, but for a radical change which will someday break the cycle of the world's endless suffering.

In either case, Ralph Wood makes too much of Sam's epiphany in arguing that Frodo's quest depends upon Christian hope as "the highest of all virtues" (The Gospel According to Tolkien: Visions of the Kingdom in Middle-earth, p. 148). Tolkien makes it abundantly plain that Frodo's quest is a fairly hopeless one, and that despite this, it depends upon courage as the highest of all virtues: carrying on simply because it is the right thing to do.